Definition of expectations theory of exchange rates

expectations theory of exchange rates

theory that expected spot exchange rate equals the forward rate.

Agency theory

The analysis of principal-agent relationships, wherein one person, an agent, acts on behalf of
anther person, a principal.

American Stock Exchange (AMEX)

The second-largest stock exchange in the United States. It trades
mostly in small-to medium-sized companies.

Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)

An alternative model to the capital asset pricing model developed by
Stephen Ross and based purely on arbitrage arguments.

Biased expectations theories

Related: pure expectations theory.

Bill of exchange

General term for a document demanding payment.

Bubble theory

Security prices sometimes move wildly above their true values.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)

A not-for-profit corporation owned by its members. Its primary
functions are to provide a location for trading futures and options, collect and disseminate market information,
maintain a clearing mechanism and enforce trading rules.

Commodities Exchange Center (CEC)

The location of five New York futures exchanges: Commodity
exchange, Inc. (COMEX), the New York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX), the New York Cotton exchange,
the Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa exchange (CSC), and the New York futures exchange (NYFE). common size
statement A statement in which all items are expressed as a percentage of a base figure, useful for purposes of
analyzing trends and the changing relationship between financial statement items. For example, all items in
each year's income statement could be presented as a percentage of net sales.

Convertible exchangeable preferred stock

Convertible preferred stock that may be exchanged, at the
issuer's option, into convertible bonds that have the same conversion features as the convertible preferred
stock.

Cross rates

The exchange rate between two currencies expressed as the ratio of two foreign exchange rates
that are both expressed in terms of a third currency.

Exchange

The marketplace in which shares, options and futures on stocks, bonds, commodities and indices
are traded. Principal US stock exchanges are: New York Stock exchange (NYSE), American Stock exchange
(AMEX) and the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASDAQ)

The Exchange

A nickname for the New York stock exchange. Also known as the Big Board. More than
2,000 common and preferred stocks are traded. The exchange is the oldest in the United States, founded in
1792, and the largest. It is located on Wall Street in New York City.

Exchange controls

Governmental restrictions on the purchase of foreign currencies by domestic citizens or
on the purchase of the local domestic currency by foreigners.

Exchange of assets

Acquisition of another company by purchase of its assets in exchange for cash or stock.

Exchange of stock

Acquisition of another company by purchase of its stock in exchange for cash or shares.

Exchange offer

An offer by the firm to give one security, such as a bond or preferred stock, in exchange for
another security, such as shares of common stock.

Exchange rate

The price of one country's currency expressed in another country's currency.

Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM)

The methodology by which members of the EMS maintain their
currency exchange rates within an agreed upon range with respect to other member countries.

Exchange rate risk

Also called currency risk, the risk of an investment's value changing because of currency
exchange rates.

Exchange risk

The variability of a firm's value that results from unexpected exchange rate changes or the
extent to which the present value of a firm is expected to change as a result of a given currency's appreciation
or depreciation.

Exchangeable Security

Security that grants the security holder the right to exchange the security for the
common stock of a firm other than the issuer of the security.

Expectations hypothesis theories

Theories of the term structure of interest rates which include the pure
expectations theory, the liquidity theory of the term structure, and the preferred habitat theory. These theories
hold that each forward rate equals the expected future interest rate for the relevant period. These three theories
differ, however, on whether other factors also affect forward rates, and how.
expectations theory of forward exchange rates A theory of foreign exchange rates that holds that the
expected future spot foreign exchange rate t periods in the future equals the current t-period forward exchange
rate.

Fixed-exchange rate

A country's decision to tie the value of its currency to another country's currency, gold
(or another commodity), or a basket of currencies.

Floating exchange rate

A country's decision to allow its currency value to freely change. The currency is not
constrained by central bank intervention and does not have to maintain its relationship with another currency
in a narrow band. The currency value is determined by trading in the foreign exchange market.

Foreign exchange

Currency from another country.

Foreign exchange controls

Various forms of controls imposed by a government on the purchase/sale of
foreign currencies by residents or on the purchase/sale of local currency by nonresidents.

Foreign exchange dealer

A firm or individual that buys foreign exchange from one party and then sells it to
another party. The dealer makes the difference between the buying and selling prices, or spread.

Foreign exchange risk

The risk that a long or short position in a foreign currency might have to be closed out
at a loss due to an adverse movement in the currency rates.

Foreign exchange swap

An agreement to exchange stipulated amounts of one currency for another currency
at one or more future dates.

Forward exchange rate

exchange rate fixed today for exchanging currency at some future date.

Gold exchange standard

A system of fixing exchange rates adopted in the Bretton Woods agreement. It
involved the U.S. pegging the dollar to gold and other countries pegging their currencies to the dollar.

Growth rates

Compound annual growth rate for the number of full fiscal years shown. If there is a negative
or zero value for the first or last year, the growth is NM (not meaningful).

Historical exchange rate

An accounting term that refers to the exchange rate in effect when an asset or
liability was acquired.

Homogenous expectations assumption

An assumption of Markowitz portfolio construction that investors
have the same expectations with respect to the inputs that are used to derive efficient portfolios: asset returns,
variances, and covariances.

Liquidity theory of the term structure

A biased expectations theory that asserts that the implied forward
rates will not be a pure estimate of the market's expectations of future interest rates because they embody a
liquidity premium.

Local expectations theory

A form of the pure expectations theory which suggests that the returns on bonds
of different maturities will be the same over a short-term investment horizon.

London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE)

A London exchange where Eurodollar futures
as well as futures-style options are traded.

London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE)

London exchange where Eurodollar futures as well as futures-style options are traded.

Market segmentation theory or preferred habitat theory

A biased expectations theory that asserts that the
shape of the yield curve is determined by the supply of and demand for securities within each maturity sector.

Modern portfolio theory

Principles underlying the analysis and evaluation of rational portfolio choices
based on risk-return trade-offs and efficient diversification.

Multiple rates of return

More than one rate of return from the same project that make the net present value
of the project equal to zero. This situation arises when the IRR method is used for a project in which negative
cash flows follow positive cash flows. For each sign change in the cash flows, there is a rate of return.

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)

Also known as the Big Board or The Exhange. More than 2,00 common
and preferred stocks are traded. The exchange is the older in the United States, founded in 1792, and the
largest. It is lcoated on Wall Street in New York City

Nominal exchange rate

The actual foreign exchange quotation in contrast to the real exchange rate that has
been adjusted for changes in purchasing power.

Normal backwardation theory

Holds that the futures price will be bid down to a level below the expected
spot price.

Organized exchange

A securities marketplace wherein purchasers and sellers regularly gather to trade
securities according to the formal rules adopted by the exchange.

Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX)

A securities exchange where American and European foreign
currency options on spot exchange rates are traded.

Preferred habitat theory

A biased expectations theory that believes the term structure reflects the
expectation of the future path of interest rates as well as risk premium. However, the theory rejects the
assertion that the risk premium must rise uniformly with maturity. Instead, to the extent that the demand for
and supply of funds does not match for a given maturity range, some participants will shift to maturities
showing the opposite imbalances. As long as such investors are compensated by an appropriate risk premium
whose magnitude will reflect the extent of aversion to either price or reinvestment risk.

Pure expectations theory

A theory that asserts that the forward rates exclusively represent the expected
future rates. In other words, the entire term structure reflects the markets expectations of future short-term
rates. For example, an increasing sloping term structure implies increasing short-term interest rates. Related:
biased expectations theories

Rational expectations

The idea that people rationally anticipate the future and respond to what they see ahead.

Real exchange rates

exchange rates that have been adjusted for the inflation differential between two countries.

Return-to-maturity expectations

A variant of pure expectations theory which suggests that the return that an
investor will realize by rolling over short-term bonds to some investment horizon will be the same as holding
a zero-coupon bond with a maturity that is the same as that investment horizon.

Securities & Exchange Commission

The SEC is a federal agency that regulates the U.S.financial markets.

SIMEX (Singapore International Monetary Exchange)

A leading futures and options exchange in Singapore.

Spot exchange rates

exchange rate on currency for immediate delivery. Related: forward exchange rate.

Static theory of capital structure

theory that the firm's capital structure is determined by a trade-off of the
value of tax shields against the costs of bankruptcy.

Stock exchanges

Formal organizations, approved and regulated by the Securities and exchange Commission
(SEC), that are made up of members that use the facilities to exchange certain common stocks. The two major
national stock exchanges are the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) and the American Stock exchange (ASE
or AMEX). Five regional stock exchanges include the Midwest, Pacific, Philadelphia, Boston, and Cincinnati.
The Arizona stock exchange is an after hours electronic marketplace where anonymous participants trade
stocks via personal computers.

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

The federal agency that
oversees the issuance of and trading in securities of public businesses.
The SEC has broad powers and can suspend the trading in securities of a
business. The SEC also has primary jurisdiction in making accounting
and financial reporting rules, but over the years it has largely deferred to
the private sector for the development of generally accepted accounting
principles (GAAP).

theory of constraints (TOC)

a method of analyzing the bottlenecks
(constraints) that keep a system from achieving
higher performance; it states that production cannot take
place at a rate faster than the slowest machine or person
in the process

exchange rate

Amount of one currency needed to purchase one unit of another.

forward rate of exchange

exchange rate for a forward transaction.

pecking order theory

Firms prefer to issue debt rather than equity if internal finance is insufficient.

random walk theory

Security prices change randomly, with no predictable trends or patterns.

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

Federal agency responsible for regulation of securities markets in the United
States.

spot rate of exchange

exchange rate for an immediate transaction.

trade-off theory

Debt levels are chosen to balance interest tax shields against the costs of financial distress.

Effective Exchange Rate

The weighted average of several exchange rates, where the weights are determined by the extent of our trade done with each country.

Equation of Exchange

The quantity theory equation Mv = PQ.

Exchange Rate, Nominal

The price of one currency in terms of another, in this book defined as number of units of foreign currency per dollar.

Exchange Rate, Real

The nominal exchange rate corrected for price level differences.

Fixed Exchange Rate

An exchange rate held constant by a government promise to buy or sell dollars at the fixed rate on the foreign exchange market.

Flexible Exchange Rate

An exchange rate whose value is determined by the forces of supply and demand on the foreign exchange market.

Floating Exchange Rate

See flexible exchange rate.

Foreign Exchange

The currency of a foreign country.

Foreign Exchange Market

A worldwide market in which one country's currency is bought or sold in exchange for another country's currency.

Foreign Exchange Reserves

A fund containing the central bank's holdings of foreign currency or claims thereon.

Forward Exchange Market

A market in which foreign exchange can be bought or sold for delivery (and payment) at some specified future date but at a price agreed upon now.

Medium of Exchange

Any item that can be commonly exchanged for goods and services.

Quantity Theory of Money

theory that velocity is constant, and so a change in money supply will change nominal income by the same percentage. Formalized by the equation Mv = PQ.

Rational Expectations

The best forecasts that can be made given the data available and knowledge of how the economy operates. Rational expectations implies random errors, no systematic errors.

Real Business Cycle Theory

Belief that business cycles arise from real shocks to the economy, such as technology advances and natural resource discoveries, and have little to do with monetary policy.

Real Exchange Rate

exchange rate adjusted for relative price levels.

Term Structure of Interest Rates

Relationship among interest rates on bonds with different terms to maturity.

Realizable Revenue A revenue transaction where assets received in exchange for goods and

services are readily convertible into known amounts of cash or claims to cash.

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

A federal agency that administers securities legislation,
including the Securities Acts of 1933 and 1934. Public companies in the United States
must register their securities with the SEC and file with the agency quarterly and annual financial
reports.

Preferred Rates

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