Definition of Forecast

Forecast

A revised budget estimate or update, part-way through a budget period.

Forecast

Future-oriented financial information prepared using assumptions all of which reflect the entity's planned courses of action for the period covered given management's judgment as to the most probable set of economic conditions.

Consensus forecast

The mean of all financial analysts' forecasts for a company.

Sales forecast

A key input to a firm's financial planning process. External sales forecasts are based on
historical experience, statistical analysis, and consideration of various macroeconomic factors.

Cash Flow Forecast

An estimate of the timing and amount of a company's inflows and outflows of money measured over a specific period of time typically monthly for one to two years then annually for an additional one to three years.

Active portfolio strategy

A strategy that uses available information and forecasting techniques to seek a
better performance than a portfolio that is simply diversified broadly. Related: passive portfolio strategy

Appraisal ratio

The signal-to-noise ratio of an analyst's forecasts. The ratio of alpha to residual standard
deviation.

Cash budget

A forecasted summary of a firm's expected cash inflows and cash outflows as well as its
expected cash and loan balances.

Earnings surprises

Positive or negative differences from the consensus forecast of earnings by institutions
such as First Call or IBES. Negative earnings surprises generally have a greater adverse affect on stock prices
than the reciprocal positive earnings surprise on stock prices.

Market timer

A money manager who assumes he or she can forecast when the stock market will go up and down.

Market timing

Asset allocation in which the investment in the market is increased if one forecasts that the
market will outperform T-bills.

Pro forma statement

A financial statement showing the forecast or projected operating results and balance
sheet, as in pro forma income statements, balance sheets, and statements of cash flows.

Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA)

An asset allocation strategy that allows active departures from the normal
asset mix based upon rigorous objective measures of value. Often called active management. It involves
forecasting asset returns, volatilities and correlations. The forecasted variables may be functions of
fundamental variables, economic variables or even technical variables.

Yield curve

The graphical depiction of the relationship between the yield on bonds of the same credit quality
but different maturities. Related: Term structure of interest rates. Harvey (1991) finds that the inversions of
the yield curve (short-term rates greater than long term rates) have preceded the last five U.S. recessions. The
yield curve can accurately forecast the turning points of the business cycle.

accelerated depreciation

(1) The estimated useful life of the fixed asset being depreciated is
shorter than a realistic forecast of its probable actual service life;
(2) more of the total cost of the fixed asset is allocated to the first
half of its useful life than to the second half (i.e., there is a
front-end loading of depreciation expense).

price/earnings ratio (price to earnings ratio, P/E ratio, PE ratio)

This key ratio equals the current market price
of a capital stock share divided by the earnings per share (EPS) for the
stock. The EPS used in this ratio may be the basic EPS for the stock or its
diluted EPS—you have to check to be sure about this. A low P/E may signal
an undervalued stock or may reflect a pessimistic forecast by
investors for the future earnings prospects of the business. A high P/E
may reveal an overvalued stock or reflect an optimistic forecast by
investors. The average P/E ratio for the stock market as a whole varies
considerably over time—from a low of about 8 to a high of about 30.
This is quite a range of variation, to say the least.

Residual Value

The value attributed to a company to represent all future cash flows
after the end of the forecast period

Regression analysis

Statistical analysis techniques that quantify the
relationship between two or more variables. The intent is quantitative
prediction or forecasting, particularly using a small population to forecast the
behavior of a large population.

Material requirements planning (MRP)

A computer-driven production methodology
that manufactures products based on an initial demand forecast. It tends to result in
more inventory of all types than a just-in-time (JIT) production system.

percentage of sales models

Planning model in which sales forecasts are the driving variables and most other variables are
proportional to sales.

pro formas

Projected or forecasted financial statements.

Rational Expectations

The best forecasts that can be made given the data available and knowledge of how the economy operates. Rational expectations implies random errors, no systematic errors.

Earnings Management

The active manipulation of earnings toward a predetermined target.
That target may be one set by management, a forecast made by analysts, or an amount that is consistent
with a smoother, more sustainable earnings stream. Often, although not always, earnings
management entails taking steps to reduce and “store” profits during good years for use during
slower years. This more limited form of earnings management is known as income smoothing.

Earning Power

A company's ability to generate a sustainable, and likely growing, stream of
earnings that provide cash flow.
Earnings Management The active manipulation of earnings toward a predetermined target.
That target may be one set by management, a forecast made by analysts, or an amount that is consistent with a smoother, more sustainable earnings stream. Often, although not always, earnings management entails taking steps to reduce and “store” profits during good years for use during slower years. This more limited form of earnings management is known as income smoothing.

Fluctuation inventory

Excess inventory kept on hand to provide a buffer against
forecasting errors.

Inactive inventory

Parts with no recent prior or forecasted usage.

Surplus inventory

Parts for which the on-hand quantity exceeds forecasted
requirements.

Future-Oriented Financial Information

Information about prospective results of operations, financial position and/or changes in financial position, based on assumptions about future economic conditions and courses of action. Future-oriented financial information is presented as either a forecast or a projection.

Residual Value

Typically estimated based on the present value of the after-tax cash flows expected to be earned after the forecast period.

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